SAN FRANCISCO, March 25 (Reuters) - Market researcher
Gartner Inc on Tuesday cut its forecast for worldwide
personal-computer sales growth, citing the weakening economy,
and cautioned that growth could fall into the single digits.
The industry is expected to ship 10.9 percent more
computers this year than in 2007, Gartner said, down from an
earlier forecast of 11.6 percent. In 2007, shipments grew 13.4
percent to 271.2 million units, U.S.-based Gartner estimated in
January.
"The consensus among economists is we have a recession,"
Gartner research director George Shiffler said by phone. "It's
not a question of whether there is (a recession), but how deep
it's going to be and how long it's going to last."
In addition to a U.S. recession, the possibility of a sharp
slowdown in China's economy following this year's Olympic games
in Beijing and higher oil prices could hurt PC sales, Gartner
said.
The world's top PC makers include Hewlett-Packard Co
(HPQ.N: Quote, Profile, Research), Dell Inc (DELL.O: Quote, Profile, Research), Taiwan's Acer Inc (2353.TW: Quote, Profile, Research) and
China's Lenovo Group Ltd (0992.HK: Quote, Profile, Research).
Shiffler said U.S. businesses may delay desktop PC
replacements until next year as technology budgets tighten.
Companies may decide to keep running older versions of
Microsoft Corp's (MSFT.O: Quote, Profile, Research) Windows operating system before
upgrading to Windows Vista, which in most cases requires a
higher-performing PC to function fully, he said.
"If you have a bunch of stuff coming due for replacement
this year, you could extend life cycles into next year and save
yourself some out-of-pocket money," Shiffler said.
The last major desktop PC replacement cycle was from 2004
to 2005, Gartner said. It expects another, "albeit
substantially more modest" replacement cycle, from late 2008 to
early 2010.
Still, Gartner said the PC market "is fundamentally in good
shape," with strong sales of laptop computers being spurred by
falling prices and growing demand for computers in emerging
markets.
(Reporting by Philipp Gollner; Editing by Gary Hill)
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