Some investors are looking for ways to help make the Yahoo and Microsoft deal actually happen.NEW YORK (Reuters) - Yahoo Inc (YHOO.O: Quote, Profile, Research), whose shares fell as much as 20 percent on Monday after Microsoft Corp (MSFT.O: Quote, Profile, Research)
dropped its $47.5 billion bid for the Web company, is likely to face
pressure and possibly a proxy battle from activist hedge funds looking
to revive the deal.
With billions of dollars in financial muscle, some activist hedge
funds are already laying the groundwork for a campaign after the
three-month talks between Microsoft and Yahoo collapsed last weekend.
Microsoft walked away, saying it would not bid more than $33 per share
for Yahoo, while Yahoo wanted $4 a share more to agree to the deal.
Experts say it would likely take one or more substantial, seasoned
activists to buy a large stake in Yahoo and finance a credible
multimillion-dollar proxy campaign. But at least one small firm,
Ironfire Capital, is talking to other firms about running a director
slate, according to Eric Jackson, who heads the firm.
"I'm mad," said Jackson, who was involved in a successful campaign
last year to have former Yahoo Chief Executive Terry Semel replaced.
"Yahoo's rejection was not in the best interests of shareholders, and
the board needs to be held accountable."
Jackson's Naples, Florida-based firm has a minuscule holding in
Yahoo, just 96 shares. But if other, larger hedge funds line up and buy
at least 5 percent of the company's now-discounted stock and run a
slate of director candidates that would favor a sale to Microsoft, the
move could gain traction.
With 1.25 billion Yahoo shares outstanding, a stake of 62 million
shares, or around 5 percent, could cost more than $1.5 billion at
today's price of around $24 per share. That leaves such a campaign
likely only for the largest activists, such as Carl Icahn, William
Ackman of Pershing Square Capital, Nelson Peltz' Trian Partners, Jana
Partners and a handful of others.
"There are not a lot of activists who can invest $1 billion," said
Manny Pearlman, CEO of hedge fund Liberation Investment Group and
veteran of numerous, smaller proxy battles.
Icahn, who led a high-profile campaign against Time Warner two years
ago and has invested over $1 billion in Motorola in a current proxy
campaign, is not currently a Yahoo investor and has no immediate plans
to run a campaign, a person close to Icahn said.
But experts said the billionaire New York financier could be in a
prime position to put pressure on Yahoo to revive talks with Microsoft,
since he was successful last year in negotiations to get Oracle Corp
(ORCL.O: Quote, Profile, Research) to return to the table to buy BEA Systems (BEAS.O: Quote, Profile, Research) after Oracle walked away.
"There is a clear path to victory for someone willing to buy the
stock and deliver the company to Microsoft at $33 a share," said a
senior executive at one multi-billion dollar activist hedge fund who
asked for anonymity. "You need a lead dog that runs the campaign,
however."
In all proxy campaigns, timing is critical, and in this case, it
favors investor activists. Since Yahoo has yet to set the date for its
annual meeting, expected in July, activists still have time this year
to submit candidates for the board, rather than being forced to wait
until next year.
Of course, by that time, Microsoft's interest in Yahoo may have
cooled, leaving activists to demand other more speculative routes for
Yahoo. If such a campaign collapses altogether and a fund has invested
a large part of their assets in the hopes of a deal, "You have a real
business franchise risk," said one hedge fund manager.
(Editing by Toni Reinhold)
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