Merger Minuet

PDF DownloadAs reports of earnings (or lack thereof) pour out of technology suppliers (see “Software Suppliers At a Loss“), merger talk inevitably splashes around. Only a handful of the biggest fish—IBM, SAP, Oracle, Microsoft and perhaps PeopleSoft—are likely to have the resources, flexibility or willingness to swallow up anybody these days. Herewith, soundings culled from industry executives and analysts, in early February.

BIG FISHLITTLE FISHTHE FISHING LINE
OracleBEA SystemsProbably not worth the effort. Oracle CEO Larry Ellison said Oracle “would benefit from buying [BEA], but not much, and that’s the problem.”
OracleSiebel & i2Improbable. In mid-January, Ellison called both “dying companies.” And Siebel just announced the creation of a “poison-pill” defense.
IBMMatrixOneNot likely. The two companies already share a marketing partnership. No upside for IBM in buying the firm outright.
IBMVignetteDespite an overlapping customer base, Vignette’s recent purchase of Epicentric might complicate matters.
SAPAspenAfter realizing some efficiencies, SAP could see a return even if it pays double the supply-chain software company’s current market cap.
PeopleSoftAgile SoftwareInsiders note the warm vibes between top executives at the two companies-a merger would be friendly.
Infosysi2i2 has nearly a half-billion in cash on its books and significant intellectual property. India-based Infosys might pick up i2 in order to make an impact in the States.
MicrosoftWebExOops. Wrong fish. Redmond is buying rival online conferencer PlaceWare instead. Now WebEx has to wonder if it can continue to go it alone.
MicrosoftAOLNot as crazy as it sounds. What’s the only outfit that might pay Time Warner a premium for AOL?
IBMSunLong rumored. But no action to date.
Source: AMR Research, Baseline Research