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Merger Minuet
By Joshua Weinberger
2003-02-01
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Going fishing for possible acquisitions? Start with these whoppers.
As reports of earnings (or lack thereof) pour out of technology suppliers (see "Software Suppliers At a Loss"), merger talk inevitably splashes around. Only a handful of the biggest fish—IBM, SAP, Oracle, Microsoft and perhaps PeopleSoft—are likely to have the resources, flexibility or willingness to swallow up anybody these days. Herewith, soundings culled from industry executives and analysts, in early February.
| BIG FISH |
LITTLE FISH |
THE FISHING LINE |
| Oracle |
BEA Systems |
Probably not worth the effort. Oracle CEO Larry Ellison said Oracle "would benefit from buying [BEA], but not much, and that's the problem." |
| Oracle |
Siebel & i2 |
Improbable. In mid-January, Ellison called both "dying companies." And Siebel just announced the
creation of a "poison-pill" defense. |
| IBM |
MatrixOne |
Not likely. The two companies already share a marketing partnership. No upside for IBM in buying the firm outright. |
| IBM |
Vignette |
Despite an overlapping customer base, Vignette's recent purchase of Epicentric might complicate matters. |
| SAP |
Aspen |
After realizing some efficiencies, SAP could see a return even if it pays double the supply-chain software company's current market cap. |
| PeopleSoft |
Agile Software |
Insiders note the warm vibes between top executives at the two companies-a merger would be friendly. |
| Infosys |
i2 |
i2 has nearly a half-billion in cash on its books and significant intellectual property. India-based Infosys might pick up i2 in order to make an impact in the States. |
| Microsoft |
WebEx |
Oops. Wrong fish. Redmond is buying rival online conferencer PlaceWare instead. Now WebEx has to wonder if it can continue to go it alone. |
| Microsoft |
AOL |
Not as crazy as it sounds. What's the only outfit that might pay Time Warner a premium for AOL? |
| IBM |
Sun |
Long rumored. But no action to date. |
| Source: AMR Research, Baseline Research |
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