Housing Legislation a Help but No Magic Wand - Mounting Costs (
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MOUNTING COSTS
President George W. Bush on Wednesday dropped a threat to veto the
rescue bill, seeing the need to promptly address the housing and credit
crisis as more important than his earlier reservations about a
provision in the bill unrelated to the GSE aid.
Removal of the presidential veto threat spurred investors on
Wednesday to snap up shares and bonds of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
which are privately held companies despite their government-sponsored
status.
The prospects of GSE rescue had a positive influence on stocks on
Wall Street. However it contributed to a sell-off in safe-haven
government bonds, causing their yields to rise.
Government bonds were also weighed down by concerns over the cost of
the measures to shore up Fannie and Freddie, which could potentially
amount to $25 billion, according to congressional budget analysts.
The measures would give beleaguered Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
access to an expanded credit line from the U.S. Treasury. In addition,
it authorizes the Treasury to purchase equity in the two companies if
necessary.
If sustained, the rise in Treasury yields could ultimately hurt the
housing market, since government bonds are the benchmark for borrowing
costs throughout the economy.
Interest rates will remain a key focus for the housing market's
recovery. Thirty-year mortgage rates hit one-year highs last week,
eroding demand for U.S. home loan applications, according to data from
the Mortgage Bankers Association released on Wednesday.
Economists will continue watching mortgage rates but said the mild
rise in Treasury yields so far was a small price to pay for the goal of
financial stability that is the rationale behind the bill.
Given Treasuries' status as ultra-safe investments, it is also a
good sign for the economy that their appeal is in decline, some argue.
"Anything that stabilizes the financial system at this juncture is
probably a contributor to better outcomes on growth," said Neal Soss,
chief economist at Credit Suisse in New York.
Still, economists caution against getting too optimistic over the
legislation. The housing market has been in a steep slide for nearly
three years, during which time a glut of homes for sale has swelled,
ruling out any quick fixes from the current rescue plan or other
sources.
"What the government does is help to draw a line in the sand and say
we're not going to allow a major collapse here akin to what we saw in
the Great Depression," said Brian Levitt, economist at OppenheimerFunds
in New York.
"But there's simply not a lot of stimulus for the broad economy and
there's not a lot of stimulus particularly for the housing market."
(Reporting by Burton Frierson )
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