The Federal Reserve is expected to lower
interest rates on Wednesday as part of an ongoing aggressive effort to
spare the economy from the worst effects of a deep housing slump and
credit crunch.
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower
interest rates on Wednesday as part of an ongoing aggressive effort to
spare the economy from the worst effects of a deep housing slump and
credit crunch.
The Fed's policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee resumed its
meeting about 9 a.m. a central bank spokesperson said. The Fed is
expected to announce its decision at about 2:15 p.m.
Financial markets saw an 80 percent chance the Fed would lower
benchmark overnight rates by a steep half-percentage point after a weak
reading on fourth-quarter growth was released on Wednesday, as the
central bank seeks to counter the risk of a U.S. recession. Real
fourth-quarter gross domestic product rose by 0.6 percent, the Commerce
Department said.
Any rate cut would follow a surprise three-quarter-point reduction
on January 22 and mark one of the deepest and fastest rate-cutting
episodes since the early 1980s.
"Weaker consumer confidence and spending data, along with rising
housing inventories and plunging home prices, will likely keep Fed
officials concerned about 'appreciable' downside risks to growth,"
wrote economists at UBS, who are expecting a half-percentage point cut.
In explaining its aggressive move last week, the Fed said the
outlook for economic growth had weakened and downside risks had risen.
Policy-makers also said businesses and households were beginning to
feel the pinch of tighter credit.
STOCK GAINS
The rate cut was unveiled a day after global stock markets fell
sharply and before U.S. financial markets were due to reopen after the
Martin Luther King Jr. holiday.
The emergency move, just one week before the U.S. central bank's
regularly scheduled two-day policy-setting meeting, signaled a high
degree of concern about financial market volatility and economic
deterioration.
The Fed came under fire after its emergency move when French bank
Societe Generale revealed two days later it had lost more than $7
billion unwinding unauthorized trades by an employee. Markets wondered
whether the sales had pushed equity prices down, misleading the Fed
into overreacting to the market sell-off.
A Fed official, however, said Monday's stock market declines were
just one factor in the central bank's thinking, and policy-makers were
still comfortable with their decision.
An additional factor many analysts believed influenced the Fed's
inter-meeting move was credit-rating trouble among major bond insurers.
Downgrades were seen as having the potential to spark a new wave of
bank losses.
WEAK FOURTH QUARTER
The economy's weaker-than-expected performance in the fourth quarter
is likely to be a factor in the Fed's decision. Analysts had forecast
the economy would expand by 1.2 percent in the last three months of the
year.
That news might be tempered by a report from ADP Employer Services
showing private-sector employers added 130,000 jobs in January, about
double what economists expected. The official Labor Department report
on January employment is scheduled for release on Friday.
The government reported earlier this month that the economy added a
sparse 18,000 jobs in December, a clear sign the economy was
sputtering, and a number of prominent economists have warned recession
may be hard to avoid.
"By not cutting now, the Fed would miss an opportunity to support
the economy in a timely manner and to get ahead of the curve," wrote
UniCredit economist Harm Bandholz, who forecasts a half-point
reduction. "The committee these days leans toward cutting the target
rate too much rather than too little."
However, not all the economic data has been dismal.
A report on Tuesday showed much stronger-than-expected demand for
long-lasting U.S.-made goods in December, while weekly reports have
shown initial claims for jobless benefits declining.
(Reporting by Mark Felsenthal; Editing by Neil Stempleman)
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