The Fed Chairman gave the ready signal for cuts in interest rates.
WASHINGTON
(Reuters) - Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on Wednesday signaled
the U.S. central bank was ready to cut interest rates again to prevent
a housing slump and shaky credit markets from further damaging a weak
economy.
Delivering the Fed's semiannual report on the economy to Congress,
Bernanke took note of recent elevated readings on inflation, but made
clear the central bank's main concern was the economy would fail to
revive later this year.
"It is important to recognize that downside risks to growth remain,"
Bernanke told the House of Representatives' Financial Services
Committee.
"The (Fed) will be carefully evaluating incoming information bearing
on the economic outlook and will act in a timely manner as needed to
support growth and to provide adequate insurance against downside
risks," he said.
The central bank has lowered overnight interest rates to 3 percent
from 5.25 percent in five steps since mid-September. Financial markets
saw Bernanke's testimony as validating bets on another half-percentage
point cut at the Fed's next meeting on March 18.
"I think they are probably doing the right thing in focusing on
sluggish growth more than on inflation. They're willing to inject more
juice into the system, and that's what they need to do," said Firas
Askari, head of currency trading at BMO Capital Markets in Toronto.
The dollar hit a record low against the euro on Bernanke's remarks, and U.S. government debt prices fell.
Stocks initially stayed mired in negative territory, but reversed
course as a U.S. regulator gave a green light to housing finance
companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to invest more money in the
mortgage market.
DELICATE BALANCE
Bernanke said that while the central bank expects inflation to
moderate, risks that price pressures could remain elevated have
climbed, underscoring the difficult situation policy-makers face.
"The further increases in the prices of energy and other commodities
in recent weeks, together with the latest data on consumer prices,
suggest slightly greater upside risks to the projections of both
overall and core inflation than we saw last month," he said. A
government report last week showed consumer prices rose a
steeper-than-expected 0.4 percent in January.
The Fed typically lowers interest rates to boost growth but raises
borrowing costs if it wants to cool inflation pressures.
Higher-than-desirable inflation could limit the central bank's options
as it seeks to put a floor under the slowing economy.
If the public began to doubt the Fed's willingness to take measures
to keep inflation at bay, it could hurt the central bank's ability to
support growth, Bernanke added.
"Any tendency of inflation expectations to become unmoored or for
the Fed's inflation-fighting credibility to be eroded could greatly
complicate the task of sustaining price stability and could reduce the
flexibility of the (Fed) to counter shortfalls of growth in the
future," Bernanke added.
A week ago, the central bank lowered its forecast for 2008 economic
growth by a half-point to between 1.3 percent and 2 percent, while
raising its projection for unemployment and inflation.
"The risks to this outlook remain to the downside," Bernanke said.
POLICY LAGS
He noted that monetary policy affects the economy with a lag and
said the Fed needed to keep in mind the economy's likely path, as well
as the risks it faces.
"A critical task for the Federal Reserve over the course of this
year will be to assess whether the stance of monetary policy is
properly calibrated to foster our mandated objectives of maximum
employment and price stability in an environment of downside risks to
growth, stressed financial conditions, and inflation pressures," he
said.
The struggling housing market should weigh on growth in coming
quarters, he said. Higher energy prices, lower home and stock market
values, and slowing job creation are likely to damp household spending,
Bernanke added.
Households feeling the pinch of sliding home and stock values, and
higher energy prices may hold back on the spending that provides
two-thirds of the economy's thrust, Bernanke said. Slower hiring is
also likely to weigh on consumers, he added.
Bernanke said financial markets remained strained in the wake of
rising mortgage delinquencies and worries about credit quality.
However, steps taken by the Fed and other central banks to ease credit
market conditions appear to have helped.
(Additional reporting by Alister Bull; Editing by Neil Stempleman)
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