According to a Penn State University study, U.S. earnings forecasts from Wall St analysts are
excessively high, at two times historic gross domestic product
growth.
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Wall Street analysts, keen to please
employers intent on winning business, continue to overstate
expected corporate earnings growth, even as concerns about the
U.S. economy mount, a study said on Thursday.
The findings of the study by finance professors at Penn
State University come five years after 10 Wall Street firms
agreed to pay $1.4 billion to settle charges that they issued
biased research in order to win investment banking business.
The study, however, found that the investigation into
biased research spearheaded by then-New York Attorney General
Eliot Spitzer and the resulting fines had no effect on
analysts' growth-rate forecasts.
"Analysts are rewarded for biased forecasts by their
employers who want them to hype stocks so that the brokerage
house can garner trading commissions and win underwriting
deals," the study says.
According to the study, U.S. earnings forecasts are
excessively high, at two times historic gross domestic product
growth.
The study's authors examined analysts' long-term and
one-year projected annual profit forecasts for all companies
from 1984 to 2006.
Their findings show that analysts consistently projected
earnings per share growth rates much higher than actual growth
and that firms rarely meet or exceed their projected profit
estimates.
Gross domestic product growth over the past 40 years has
averaged 7.4 percent annually, while long-term, or on a three-
to five-year basis, growth in earnings per share was forecast
at 14.7 percent on average from 1984 to 2006, the study shows.
That compares with actual long-term EPS growth of 9.1
percent, it said.
The study echoes what many Wall Street strategists have
already been saying about profit projections.
Strategists say 2008 profit forecasts are unrealistically
high, and need to come down to reflect the current U.S.
economic climate, which U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson
this week said was in "sharp decline."
"Consensus numbers are often just too high," Abby Joseph
Cohen, president of Goldman Sachs' Global Markets Institute,
said this week. "Economic conditions have clearly deteriorated
over the last few months, and we don't think that has been
reflected in the consensus number."
For all of 2008, analysts are projecting earnings growth of
14.8 percent for Standard & Poor's 500 companies, Reuters
Estimates' data shows, but many strategists are predicting much
lower gains and some say earnings could even be flat for the
year.
For the 2008 first quarter, earnings for S&P 500 companies
are now expected to fall by 2.7 percent from a year earlier.
Two weeks ago, analysts on average were expecting a 0.4 percent
rise.
The projections are based on a compilation of S&P 500
forecasts from Wall Street strategists and industry analysts.
(Editing by Leslie Adler)
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