Fifty-four percent of the CFOs said the United States is in
recession according to a Duke University/CFO
Magazine survey.
NEW YORK (Reuters)
- A U.S. recession has already started and the downturn is likely to
last longer than in the recent past, with the economy recovering only
late next year, according to a quarterly survey of corporate finance
chiefs released on Wednesday.
Fifty-four percent of the CFOs said the United States is in
recession, and another 24 percent said there is a high likelihood of
one starting later this year, according to a Duke University/CFO
Magazine survey completed on March 7.
Nearly three-quarters of the CFOs said they were more pessimistic
this quarter than in the prior quarter about the U.S. economy,
reflecting concerns about consumer spending, turmoil in credit and
housing markets, and high energy prices.
An index of optimism, which rates the economy on a 1 to 100 scale,
is at 52, the lowest in the seven-year history of the index, the survey
found.
"The last two recessions lasted only eight months," said Duke
professor Campbell Harvey, founding director of the survey. "In
contrast, 90 percent of the CFOs do not believe the economy will turn
the corner in 2008. Indeed, many of them believe it will be late 2009
before a recovery takes hold."
In response, companies are scaling back plans for capital spending
and are not planning significant hiring, in part because of high labor
costs, according to the survey, which has been conducted for 12 years.
Most CFOs said interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve have
had no impact on their business, and more than a third said credit
conditions have directly hurt their companies by making capital tougher
to get and more expensive.
The survey included responses from 1,073 CFOs, including 475 based in the United States.
Those polled in Europe and Asia have also grown more pessimistic
about economies in their regions, while two-thirds of Chinese CFOs said
they are concerned about U.S. recession hurting their profit margins or
demand for their exports.
(Reporting by Nick Zieminski; Editing by Steve Orlofsky)
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