Is the rate cutting over for the Federal Reserve?WASHINGTON
(Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve resumed a meeting on Wednesday
that was expected to lead to a quarter-percentage point interest rate
cut and possibly a hint that a rate-cutting cycle kicked off last fall
may be at an end.
The Fed will announce its decision on rates and offer an assessment of threats facing the economy at around 2:15 p.m.
Fed policy-makers gathered shortly after the government said the
economy grew at a sluggish 0.6 percent annual rate in the first
quarter, a slightly stronger-than-expected pace, as inventory-building
tempered a deteriorating housing market and softer consumer spending.
Another report showed U.S. private sector employers unexpectedly
added 10,000 jobs in April, suggesting the economy retained some
resilience
"The key here is that a pullback is more shallow than expected,"
said Marc Pado, a U.S. market strategist at Cantor Fitzgerald & Co.
in San Francisco.
The data had little impact on financial market expectations for the
Fed meeting. Interest rate futures prices implied an 80 percent chance
of a quarter-point reduction and a 20 percent probability the Fed would
hold rates steady, little changed from late Tuesday.
Fed policy-makers, who have already cut benchmark overnight interest
rates by 3 percentage points to 2.25 percent since mid-September, have
been confronting a bleak landscape.
The U.S. housing market has shown no sign of hitting bottom and
credit markets still appear strained. At the same, elevated prices for
food and fuel are causing concerns among both consumers and Fed
officials.
In addition to lowering rates to spur the economy, the central bank
has rolled out a series of emergency steps to pump billions of dollars
of liquidity into financial markets to beat back a credit crunch.
Policy-makers will debate a new liquidity tool -- paying interest on
bank reserves -- on Wednesday.
While Wednesday's GDP report was more robust than expected, details
reflected widespread weakening in the economy. Consumer spending, which
accounts for about two-thirds of U.S. output, grew at the weakest rate
since the second quarter of 2001, the last time the economy was in
recession.
Housing continued its dizzying nosedive, with spending on
residential construction recording the biggest drop in more than 26
years and its ninth consecutive quarterly contraction.
At the same time, with gasoline prices heading toward $4 a gallon
and strong global demand pushing up food prices, some Fed officials
have worried openly that a desire to support the economy could lead the
central bank to take its eyes off inflation.
Two officials dissented from the central bank's decision in March to
cut rates by three-quarters of a percentage point, preferring a less
aggressive move.
The Fed's rate cuts have led to a weakening in the U.S. dollar that
has pushed import prices higher, adding to inflation pressures. But Fed
officials believe unemployment is likely to climb amid the economy's
weakness, making it difficult for businesses to raise their prices, a
view that may gain greater sway after the GDP report.
"Current conditions of the production side of the economy are not
generating inflation," said Pierre Ellis, an economist with Decision
Economics in New York.
Policy-makers also expect the combined effects of the central bank's
rate cuts -- which act with a lag -- and a $152 billion fiscal stimulus
package will provide a boost to the economy in months to come.
(Additional reporting by Richard Leong in New York; Editing by Andrea Ricci)
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