Is the Fed making rare remarks about the dollar's value?WASHINGTON
(Reuters) - Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on Tuesday issued a
rare warning on the inflationary risk posed by a weak dollar, but said
U.S. interest rates were "well positioned" for an economy facing both
price pressures and threats to growth.
"We are attentive to the implications of changes in the value of the
dollar for inflation and inflation expectations," Bernanke said by
satellite to a conference on monetary policy in Barcelona, Spain.
He added that the Fed and the U.S. Treasury were continuing to "carefully monitor" currency market developments.
U.S. officials usually defer on any comment on the value of the
dollar to the Treasury secretary, and analysts said Bernanke's remarks
were highly unusual.
"It looks like there is behind-the-scenes concern over the dollar
and its weakness. He is trying to give that a little bit of verbal
support," Kim Rupert, managing director of global fixed income analysis
at Action Economics LLC in San Francisco.
The dollar, which has declined steadily in value in recent years
against other major currencies .DXY, rose broadly and Treasury debt
prices dipped after Bernanke's remarks. The cost of oil, which is
priced in dollars, fell.
Bernanke said the Fed's interest-rate cutting campaign -- which has
taken benchmark rates to 2 percent from 5.25 percent since
mid-September -- and its infusion of billions of dollars into the
financial system to ease a credit crunch have helped put a floor under
the economy.
"For now, policy seems well positioned to promote moderate growth
and price stability over time," he said. "We will, of course, be
watching the evolving situation closely and are prepared to act as
needed to meet our dual mandate," he said.
Bernanke said until the U.S. housing market stabilizes the economy
would continue to face the risk of further weakness. He cited oil
prices, which have hit record highs in recent weeks, as another factor
weighing on economic growth.
"Activity during the current quarter is likely to be relatively
weak," Bernanke said. "We may see somewhat better economic conditions
during the second half of 2008."
However, the Fed chief also underscored concerns about inflation
from the rising costs of oil and other commodities, although he said
that so far they have had only a muted impact on broader prices.
"The pass-through of high raw materials costs to domestic labor
costs and the prices of most other products has been limited, in part
because of softening domestic demand," he said. At the same time, he
warned that "the continuation of that pattern is not guaranteed and
will bear close attention."
Bernanke said that if commodity prices stabilized as futures markets
predict, there would be a "relatively rapid moderation of inflation,"
but he said the possibility commodity costs continued to mount
presented an important risk to the outlook.
The speech did little to dissuade analysts from the view that the
Fed will leave interest rates unchanged at its next policy-setting
meeting on June 24-25.
"Bernanke is putting more attention on exchange rates and the dollar
and trying to show the Fed's concern about inflation. It clearly looks
as if the Fed is going to hold policy steady for a while," said Gary
Thayer, a senior economist at Wachovia Securities in St. Louis.
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